[Podcast] MLB 2025 Offensive Projections Analysis by David Pinto (@statsguru) on BaseballMusings.com
David Pinto analyzes the offensive potential of all 30 MLB teams for the 2025 season using the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT). Which teams will lead in scoring? A deep dive into methodology and key findings.
In a recent series of posts on BaseballMusings.com, analyst David Pinto (@statsguru) has conducted an in-depth evaluation of the projected offensive performance of all 30 MLB teams for the 2025 season. This analysis is based on the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT), which utilizes Musings Marcels’ hitting projections to estimate the runs per game each team might score.
Methodology
Pinto’s approach relies on FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts, which outline the anticipated batting order for each team as determined by its manager. Once these lineups are established, the LAT assesses their offensive potential using projected on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage (SLG), and other key offensive metrics.
Key Findings
Some teams stood out in the study due to their offensive potential:
- Arizona Diamondbacks led MLB in 2024 with 5.47 runs per game, and they could maintain a strong offensive output in 2025.
- San Diego Padres ranked eighth overall in MLB (sixth in the National League) with 4.69 runs per game.
- Pittsburgh Pirates, on the other hand, finished 24th in MLB with just 4.10 runs per game.
- Chicago White Sox are projected to slightly improve in 2025, but their offensive outlook remains modest.
An interesting case comes from the Atlanta Braves, where even with Ronald Acuña Jr. recovering from injury, Pinto projects him to maintain a .372 OBP and .481 SLG. His return to the lineup could shift Profar to the ninth spot, a move that the LAT evaluates favorably. Additionally, Pinto highlights the potential of rookie catcher Drake Baldwin, who has demonstrated strong on-base skills in the minor leagues.
Limitations and Considerations
While this study provides a solid overview of expected offensive performance, it’s important to note that specific numerical run projections for most teams were not included in the available extracts. This limits direct comparisons and makes the analysis more reliant on historical data and general lineup evaluations.
Conclusion
David Pinto’s work at BaseballMusings.com offers valuable insight into MLB’s offensive landscape for 2025. His methodology—combining depth charts, lineup decisions, and advanced statistical projections—creates a strong framework for evaluating offensive expectations.
For a more detailed breakdown, check out the original articles at BaseballMusings.com:
Links to the Team Offense Analyses
National League – East (NLE)
- Atlanta Braves → Original Analysis
- Miami Marlins → Original Analysis
- New York Mets → Original Analysis
- Washington Nationals → Original Analysis
- Philadelphia Phillies → Original Analysis
National League – Central (NLC)
- Milwaukee Brewers → Original Analysis
- St. Louis Cardinals → Original Analysis
- Chicago Cubs → Original Analysis
- Pittsburgh Pirates → Original Analysis
- Cincinnati Reds → Original Analysis
National League – West (NLW)
- Arizona Diamondbacks → Original Analysis
- Los Angeles Dodgers → Original Analysis
- San Francisco Giants → Original Analysis
- San Diego Padres → Original Analysis
- Colorado Rockies → Original Analysis
American League – East (ALE)
- Toronto Blue Jays → Original Analysis
- Baltimore Orioles → Original Analysis
- Tampa Bay Rays → Original Analysis
- Boston Red Sox → Original Analysis
- New York Yankees → Original Analysis
American League – Central (ALC)
- Cleveland Guardians → Original Analysis
- Kansas City Royals → Original Analysis
- Detroit Tigers → Original Analysis
- Minnesota Twins → Original Analysis
- Chicago White Sox → Original Analysis
American League – West (ALW)
- Los Angeles Angels → Original Analysis
- Houston Astros → Original Analysis
- Athletics → Original Analysis
- Seattle Mariners → Original Analysis
- Texas Rangers → Original Analysis